May 25, 2026

World State Update, 2026-05-24

Date: 2026-05-24

Summary

This week’s updates highlight a dangerous intensification of the conflict in Ukraine with the third combat use of hypersonic weaponry, alongside a major recalibration of the US-China relationship following the Beijing summit. Domestically, the US faces a volatile security environment after a fatal breach at the White House and a significant judicial rebuke of the administration’s immigration enforcement. Meanwhile, a rebuffed trade pitch from the UK and a global health emergency in the Democratic Republic of the Congo underscore the fragility of international cooperation.

Hypersonic Escalation in Kyiv

The Russia-Ukraine war has entered a more destructive phase following a massive coordinated strike on Kyiv. For the third time in the conflict, Russia deployed the Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missile, a weapon capable of carrying nuclear warheads and currently beyond the reach of Ukrainian air defenses. The assault targeted civilian and cultural landmarks, including the National Art Museum and the Foreign Ministry, marking a significant escalation in “nuclear brinkmanship.” This strike was framed by the Kremlin as retaliation for a reported Ukrainian drone attack on a student dormitory in the occupied town of Starobilsk, which allegedly killed 21 students.

Transactional Gains in Beijing

The high-stakes summit in Beijing between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping concluded with what critics describe as a “beans and Boeing” agreement. In exchange for a 90-day trade truce and commitments to purchase 200 Boeing jets, the US paused a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan, reflecting a shift in leverage as the US grapples with a munitions gap. While the summit offered a veneer of stability, the subsequent visit of Vladimir Putin to Beijing solidified a joint declaration of a “multipolar world.” This alignment is increasingly manifesting through de-dollarization, with nearly all trade between Russia and China now bypassing the US dollar in favor of rubles and yuan.

Security Threats in Washington

The security environment in Washington remains volatile following a fatal incident at a White House checkpoint. A 21-year-old gunman, identified as Nasire Best, was killed by Secret Service agents after opening fire near the Eisenhower Executive Office Building. The breach comes just a month after a previous assassination attempt, prompting renewed calls for the completion of the “Trump Ballroom” as a secure presidential venue. On the legal front, the administration suffered a symbolic defeat when a federal judge dismissed criminal charges against Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia. The judge characterized the prosecution of Garcia—who had become the public face of the administration’s mass deportation campaign—as a “vindictive effort” to punish him for challenging his previous wrongful expulsion.

Stalled Trade Integration in Europe

The UK government’s attempt to reintegrate into European trade markets hit a major hurdle this week. A pitch for a “single market for goods” was rebuffed by EU officials, who continue to reject “cherry-picking” that might embolden populists on the continent. While the proposal was dismissed to protect the integrity of the EU’s internal market, technical cooperation remains on the table ahead of a planned July summit to address smaller regulatory hurdles.

Ebola Emergency in the DRC

The WHO has declared a global health emergency in the Ituri province of the DRC following a resurgence of the Ebola Bundibugyo strain. This specific variant currently lacks an approved vaccine, complicating containment efforts in a region already “stretched to breaking point” by conflict and severe aid cuts. With the local health system on the verge of collapse, the outbreak poses a severe threat to the population and the regional mining economy, which relies on mobile labor and small-scale trade.

Sources

May 22, 2026

Global Health Crisis and Technical Breakthroughs: A May 2026 Update

Executive Summary

The late weeks of May 2026 have been defined by a stark contrast between accelerating scientific innovation and a crumbling global health infrastructure. While researchers have announced breakthroughs in low-cost hydrogen production and formal AI verification, a resurgent Ebola outbreak in Central Africa is being exacerbated by a deliberate withdrawal of United States leadership and funding. Meanwhile, the geopolitical landscape remains volatile as tensions simmer over Arctic sovereignty and the future of Taiwan.

Global Health: The Ituri Ebola Outbreak and the American Void

A significant Ebola outbreak, involving the rare Bundibugyo strain, has taken root in the gold-rich Ituri province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. This crisis is being compounded by a systemic withdrawal of U.S. global health support. Following massive budget cuts to USAID and the CDC, American funding for health programs in the DRC has collapsed from $1.4 billion in 2024 to just $21 million in 2026. Experts argue that the closure of specialized labs, such as NIH facility in Frederick, Maryland, has left the world without critical research capacity at a moment of maximum vulnerability.

AI Research Moving on from LLMs

A technical shift is underway in AI industry. New Energy-Based Models (EBMs) are moving away from simple language prediction toward formal verification. Systems like Olive from Logical Intelligence have achieved near-perfect scores on formal reasoning benchmarks, signaling a future where AI correctness is verified by deterministic compilers rather than mere probabilistic fluency.

Energy Transition: Breakthroughs in Hydrogen Production

Two major advancements in materials science have significantly improved the outlook for decentralized energy production. Researchers at the University of Birmingham have developed a new perovskite catalyst that enables hydrogen production from industrial waste heat at temperatures as low as 150°C.

Simultaneously, the University of Hong Kong has introduced a specialized stainless steel (SS-H2) designed for seawater electrolysis. By resisting corrosion in harsh chloride environments, this material could replace expensive platinum-coated titanium components, potentially reducing the structural material costs of electrolyzers by up to 97.5%.

Geopolitics: Greenland Sovereignty and the Taiwan Price

Geopolitical friction has intensified in the Arctic as hundreds of residents in Nuuk protested the opening of a new, expanded U.S. consulate. The Trump administration has been exerting intense pressure on Greenland and Denmark to grant Washington veto power over foreign investments, framing it as a national security necessity.

On the other side of the globe, the May 2026 Trump-Xi Summit in Beijing has revealed a shift in the U.S.-China power dynamic. In exchange for cooperation on global trade and maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz, China appears to be extracting significant concessions regarding the future of Taiwan, as the U.S. grapples with its own economic vulnerabilities and the ongoing stalemate in the Middle East.

Sources

May 19, 2026

Global Reckonings: May 2026 Update 2


Summary

In the Arctic, the Trump administration’s demand for veto power over Greenlandic investments has sparked a sovereignty crisis that tests the endurance of the Danish-Greenlandic partnership.

In the courts, OpenAI has cleared a massive legal hurdle with the dismissal of Elon Musk’s $150 billion lawsuit, even as its own engineers begin to organize against the ethical trajectory of the technology.

Meanwhile, the strategic landscape of modern warfare is shifting; Ukraine’s record-breaking drone offensive has turned Russia’s vast geography into a defensive liability.

Globally, the human cost remains high as the Ituri province in the Democratic Republic of the Congo faces an Ebola outbreak complicated by conflict and the absence of a vaccine.

The Arctic Sovereignty Crisis

The pursuit of “national security” is increasingly colliding with the autonomy of smaller nations. In closed-door negotiations, the United States is exerting intense pressure on Greenland and Denmark to grant Washington veto power over foreign infrastructure investments. The U.S. demands a major role in Greenland as a means to exclude Chinese and Russian influence, but the move has backfired in Nuuk.

Greenlandic Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen has resisted the “all or nothing” demands, framing American interference as a threat to Greenland’s internal governance and environmental standards. This friction comes as the Trump administration continues to re-evaluate its global alliances, with many in the Arctic watching the upcoming July 4th holiday for further shifts in U.S. policy.

OpenAI’s Courtroom Victory

The legal cloud over the world’s most prominent AI firm has lifted, if only partially. A federal jury recently rejected Elon Musk’s $150 billion lawsuit against OpenAI, citing the statute of limitations. While the verdict clears the path for a potential OpenAI IPO later this year, the company faces a new challenge from within.

Tech workers building A.I. are increasingly vocal about their fears, with engineers at firms like Google DeepMind unionizing to demand a voice in how their technology is deployed. These workers cite ethical concerns over military contracts and the potential for lethal autonomous weapons, leveraging their rare technical expertise to force a dialogue that regulators have yet to master.

The Geography of Vulnerability

The nature of defense is being rewritten by the sheer volume of low-cost technology. Ukraine recently launched its largest drone operation of the year, sending 600 drones across 14 Russian regions in a single night. This massed precision strike highlights a new strategic reality: Russia’s vastness, once a shield, is now a vulnerability that is impossible to defend comprehensively.

As technology accelerates on one front, older tragedies resurface on another. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Ituri Ebola outbreak has been declared a global health emergency. The situation is uniquely perilous; the Bundibugyo strain has no approved vaccine, and the population—already “stretched to breaking point” by militia conflict and aid cuts—faces economic collapse if health restrictions prevent mining and trade.

Structural Stalemate

In the Middle East, the Iran War remains in a tense “hold-off.” While President Trump authorized new strikes, he has paused the operation as Iranian defenses adapt and U.S. air tactics face increased scrutiny.

This military stalemate is mirrored by the economic one discussed during the recent Beijing summit. Despite the diplomatic pageantry, analysts suggest that the fundamental trade imbalance between the US and China is a structural accounting problem driven by domestic consumption policies that no single summit can solve.

Sources

May 18, 2026

Strategic Limbo and the Cost of War: A Mid-May 2026 Global Update

New Series of Posts

This is the start of an experiment in AI-assisted short reviews of media items I have read or watched recently, with longer term implications on the state of the world as we know it.

Some of the reviewed sources are behind a paywall and some may be in languages other than English, like the Helsingin Sanomat article linked below.

Summary

Global developments in mid-May 2026 highlight a world caught in a “strategic limbo” as the Iran War enters a new, more dangerous phase. Domestically, the Trump administration faces a dual challenge of record-low consumer confidence driven by a deepening inflation crisis and growing controversy over the public funding of religious festivals. Globally, the compounding effects of the Strait of Hormuz blockade are manifesting as a systemic fertilizer crisis and manufacturing shutdowns in East Asia, while the World Health Organization (WHO) grapples with a new Ebola emergency in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

US Domestic Issues

President Trump’s economic agenda is facing its sternest test yet as the national average gas price hit $4.52 per gallon, a 40% increase from last year. For Trump, Soaring Prices Test Voters reports that consumer confidence has dipped to an all-time low in May 2026, with inflation outpacing wage growth. This economic strain coincides with the “Rededicate 250” prayer festival on the National Mall, where thousands gathered for a government-funded worship service that critics argue blurs the line between church and state.

Iran and the “Second Strait”

The stalemate in the Iran War appears to be fracturing. Analysts report that Tehran expects a U.S. attack within 48 hours as both sides seek to improve their negotiating leverage. Iran’s new retaliatory strategy reportedly includes targeting U.S. data centers in the UAE and potentially severing submarine fiber-optic cables, creating what experts call a “second Strait of Hormuz.” This escalation follows the failure of the “blockade of the blockade” strategy and ongoing disputes over Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles.

A Planet Under Pressure

The World Health Organization has declared the Ebola outbreak in the DRC and Uganda an emergency of international concern. The outbreak, caused by the Bundibugyo virus, is complicated by the presence of M23 militia forces in regions like Goma. Simultaneously, Karachi struggles under brutal extreme heat, with temperatures hitting 44.1°C. Climate scientists note that human-caused climate change has tripled the probability of such events, which are now becoming a “brutal new reality” for South Asia.

Supply Chain Strangles

The maritime blockade is causing a “wave of scarcity” across the globe. Taiwan’s plastic habit is colliding with shortages as the disruption of petrochemical flows from the Middle East forced a 42% production cut at Formosa Petrochemical. More critically, the Hormuz crisis has disrupted global fertilizer markets, blocking one-third of the world’s supply. The World Food Programme (WFP) warns that an additional 45 million people could face acute hunger as a result. Amidst these crises, the pursuit of truth remains perilous; journalism has never been more dangerous, with 2025 recorded as the deadliest year on record for media workers.

Sources

December 11, 2019

Melting, everywhere

Melting of large deposits of ice, in glaciers and in permafrost, has been frequently with about in the recent years. When it comes to meeting on Greenland, we seem to be following the rates of the worst case predictions of older IPCC reports.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2019/12/10/greenland-ice-losses-have-septupled-are-pace-sea-level-worst-case-scenario-scientists-say/

https://www.tiede.fi/artikkeli/uutiset/gronlanti-sulaa-kuumimman-ennusteen-mukaan

There are some alarming developments in the Arctic permafrost of Sundries and Alaska. It seems like we will soon be crossing one threshold of positive feedback very soon.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/12/10/arctic-may-have-crossed-key-threshold-emitting-billions-tons-carbon-into-air-long-dreaded-climate-feedback/


“Especially noteworthy is the report’s conclusion that the Arctic already may have become a net emitter of planet-warming carbon emissions due to thawing permafrost, which would only accelerate global warming. Permafrost is the carbon-rich frozen soil that covers 24 percent of the Northern Hemisphere’s land mass, encompassing vast stretches of territory across Alaska, Canada, Siberia and Greenland. 
There has been concern throughout the scientific community that the approximately 1,460 billion to 1,600 billion metric tons of organic carbon stored in frozen Arctic soils, almost twice the amount of greenhouse gases as what is contained in the atmosphere, could be released as the permafrost melts.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/14/opinion/sunday/climate-change-arctic.html
The ice is a great white shield that reflects incoming solar warming back to space during the long summer days of the midnight sun. Otherwise, it would be absorbed by the ocean. Losing this ice, the study explained, would be the warming equivalent of an extra 25 years of emissions at current rates.”

Long time no see

I haven't written anything in quite a while. Maybe I should.

This  page has been functioning as my dumping found for excess thoughts, caused by reading way too much news, especially during the years 2002-2009 when I had something like an addiction, following the war on Iraq and the global economic downturn, fueled by the subprime crisis. I have certainly followed news very actively, but not with such an addiction anymore.

Recently, there has been a heightened level of interest in physical signs of climate change, rise of far right populist movements and overall political polarization in developed countries. I feel that a prolonged global trade war between the US and China is still just in its infancy, and will get quite a lot more intense, before settling into a new status quo.

The next economic downturn in the US will leave much more devastation behind it than most people currently realize, due to the pro-cyclic Republican tax policies that have produced a massive budget deficit at the very top of the business cycle. There will be no room for stimulus in the next downturn. The result will be either a self-enforcing austerity or a dramatic collapse in the value of the dollar and possible loss of US credit rating.

After some strange, partially media-led turmoil, our Finnish government is now led by a much younger group of people than ever since the 70's. This is a welcome development, but I hope they keep their feet on the ground. The centre-leftist government is met with a corporate media dead-set against some of its goals. It is difficult to filter the substance from the opinion.

With these developments, I am feeling that there is a risk of getting a information indigestion. It is certainly not helped by all the information that I need to digest in my professional life, which nowadays seems to consist of continuous learning of new software development tools and libraries.

December 20, 2017

Haskell and type composition the easy way

Below is a small Haskell module that I wrote as an exercise. It defines nifty little utility in the form of a generic type composition mechanism. A composite type is any type in which a type constructor is applied to a another type (denoted with type variables, like a (b c)). It can represent for example a list of optional values, i.e [Maybe Int], aka [] (Maybe Int), or an IO operation sequence that operates on a list of values (IO [a]), etc.

Haskell provides many useful high-level programming constructs for managing individual types, but its standard libraries lack a truly flexible denotation for extending those high-level functions to composition data types. Some of these issues are solved by using so-called "monad transformers", which are very sophisticated, but must be separately defined for each individual monad. And as the name says, their application is limited to monads, and they cannot be used for the many quite useful classes of type constructors at the lower levels of the functor hierarchy, such as Functors, Foldables, Traversables or Applicatives.

The small (and silly) test function at the end of the modules shows, how this modules enables flexible intermingling of overlapping data types using both the monadic do syntax and plain fmap calls. While this only seems to apply to compositions of two types at a time, it quite easily generalizes to any number of types, via meta-composition. If a, b, c ... g are functors, then so is (Comp a b). IO [Maybe Int] can be tagged as Comp (Comp IO []) Maybe Int. Hmmm... Maybe the next step is to generalize these operations to a recursive data type representing arbitrary chains of composition.

One cannot help but appreciate how all of these very useful operations are relatively short one-liners. (Readability for persons not familiar with Haskell or Scala is another question.

{-# LANGUAGE FlexibleContexts #-}

-- A generic type composition module by Reino Ruusu, December 2017, Espoo, Finland

-- The simple type composition tag defined here can do many of the tasks that
-- monad transformers are used for, but in a much more generic way, allowing
-- useful compositions of Functors, Foldables, Traversables, Applicatives and
-- Monads (with certain restrictions).

import Control.Applicative
import Control.Monad
import Data.Foldable
import Data.List

-- This type tags a composition type as a parameterized type constructor
newtype Comp m n a = Comp (m (n a))

-- Decorate a `raw' composition type
comp :: m (n a) -> Comp m n a
comp = Comp

-- Undecorate a tagged composition type
decomp :: Comp m n a -> m (n a)
decomp (Comp x) = x

-- Lift a raw outer type to the composition type (inner has to be Applicative)
lift1 :: (Functor m, Applicative n) => m a -> Comp m n a
lift1 = Comp . (pure <$>)

-- Lift a raw inner type to the composition type (outer has to be Applicative)
lift2 :: (Applicative m) => n a -> Comp m n a
lift2 = Comp . pure

-- Foldable instance
instance (Foldable m, Foldable n) => Foldable (Comp m n) where
  -- foldMap :: Monoid k => (a -> k) -> Comp m n a -> k
  foldMap f (Comp x) = foldr (\a l -> foldMap f a `mappend` l) mempty x 

-- Functor instance
instance (Functor m, Functor n) => Functor (Comp m n) where
  -- fmap :: (a -> b) -> (Comp m n a) -> (Comp m n b)
  fmap f (Comp x) = Comp (fmap (fmap f) x)

-- Applicative instance
instance (Applicative m, Applicative n) => Applicative (Comp m n) where
  -- pure :: a -> Comp m n a
  pure = comp . pure . pure
  -- (<*>) :: Comp m n (a -> b) -> Comp m n a -> Comp m n b
  Comp f <*> Comp x = Comp (liftA2 (<*>) f x)

-- Monoid instance
instance (Applicative m, Applicative n, Monoid a) => Monoid (Comp m n a) where
  -- mempty :: Comp m n a
  mempty = pure mempty
  -- mappend :: Comp m n a -> Comp m n a -> Comp m n a
  mappend = (*>)

-- Monad instance (only works if inner type is Traversable, unlike IO, for example)
instance (Monad m, Monad n, Traversable n) => Monad (Comp m n) where
  -- return = pure
  -- (>>=) :: Comp m n a -> (a -> Comp m n b) -> Comp m n b
  Comp x >>= f = Comp $ x >>= fmap join . sequence . fmap (decomp . f)


-- Test routine, builds a (Comp IO []) monad in the do block
-- First fmap (show) applies to (Comp IO [] Int), resulting in (Comp IO [] String).
-- After decomp, second fmap applies to (IO [String]).
-- Execution results in 4*(1 + 4) calls to print, and a return value of
-- "4, 5, 6, 7, 3, 4, 5, 6, 2, 3, 4, 5, 1, 2, 3, 4"

test :: () -> IO String
test () = fmap (intercalate ", ") $ decomp $ fmap (show) $ do
  a <- lift2 [1, 2, 3, 4]
  lift1 (print a)
  b <- lift2 [5, 6, 7, 8]
  lift1 (print (a, b))
  return (b - a) :: Comp IO [] Int